Briefing on the latest developments in Iran: The 99% camp vs the 1%

ارسال به بالاترین

The reflection of the ongoing events around the world on the politics of Iran is dynamic and fast; events that might be directly related to Iran, such as economical, political, structural crisis of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) as well as economic sanctions, war threats, or indirectly related events such as  revolutions in Middle East/North Africa and the Occupy movement. This short note is to brief you on the current dynamics in politics of Iran.

THE POWER STRUGGLE FORM THE ABOVE – THE 1% CAMP

Interesting SPLITS and MERGES within the rulers/bourgeois opposition has occurred as per below:

A) The so called “reformists” faction (aka pro-IRI opposition, greens, 2-khordad) known by figures like Khatami, Mousavi, Karrubi, Rafsanjani, is almost entirely out of the power structure in Iran. As a result, the role that the so called “reformists” had for the West ended as well. West used this faction as a link to the power structure of the IRI, hoping to promote the favourable changes within the IRI system by promoting the “reformists”. Once the “reformists” kicked out of power structure by the fundumentaliits, the West kicked the “reformists” out too. Tons of employed “reformists” were fired from the VOA Farsi for instance.

Once out of the power structure, the “reformists” had no use for the anti-IRI protesters neither. Protesters in Iran used the crack in the IRI in order to come out on the streets and escalate their opposition to the whole IRI. In this regard, the most powerful message that the anti-IRI movement sent to the “reformists” was rejection to participate on February 14 call for a mass rally.  Only a few loyal greens showed up on the streets of Tehran for a demo called by the “reformists”. Why? In prior calls for mass rallies, the “reformists” would use their state authority to minimize the suppression of protests. This time, they had no authority. People therefore rejected the call, specially when the cause of the call was to protest the house arrest of the “reformists” leaders, Mousavi and Karrubi. People don’t give a damn about these two figures.

As a result, this faction, the so called “reformists” is split between the pro-Ahmadinejad (yes, you read it right, pro-A’jad) folks and the pro-West  faction (yeah again, this includes a desire for war and sanctions against the IRI by this people).

B) The so-called fundamentalists faction (known by figures like Khamenei and A’jad) is split too. A’jad and his adviser Mashaee have formed a faction which include some ex-reformists,  and some high profile IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp) members. This faction is now attempting to save the IRI through normalization of the relation with US and is known as pragmatists.

A merger: The very Mousavi faction who supposedly opposed A’jad in 2009 is now getting closer to A’jad. The intention of the unspoken merge is to get rid of the head of the IRI, Khamenei, before the leftist anti-IRI movement sweeps the whole IRI.

C) The pro-Western faction of the “reformists” (such as Sazegara, Makhmalbaf, …) are merging with a) the traditional pro-West opposition (typically known by Reza Pahlavi) + b) Nationalists (including nationalist-left) + c) Separatists. They are backed by the West. Since the escaltion of the war propaganda, Reza Pahlavi for instance attempted to found a “National Council” consisting of one person, Reza Pahlavi and himself! Later on , the “greens” approached him and tried to make a coalition with him. Also, in the latest attempt, the Olof Palme International Center in Sweden arranged a meeting for ca 50 figures of this trend in order to create an alternative for the IRI. This is a picture of the meeting that took place on February 4 and 5, 2012.

Summary of the 1% dynamics: All the above belong to bourgeois camp. They do whatever it takes, from merging with their supposedly arch-enemy or splitting their best buddies to acting as the US puppets in order to block a direct move form the bottom, by the masses in Iran.

THE 99% CAMP 

Socialism has the greatest potential in Iran. The society as a whole is radicalized because of a) the objective circumstances and b) the active presence of Worker Communist Party and various socialist entities. Workers/Women/Youth movements in Iran and their respective political representation demand Freedom and Equality for ALL, not always on a self-conscious level but also because of the objective, vicious circumstances in Iran created by the IRI. Thanks to decades of communist activism, today, the women’s rights for instance is immediately linked to the complete freedom for all other oppressed. Also, thanks to the anti-capitalist movement around the world and the revolutions in ME, the anti-capitalism in Iran is now more out loud and expressive, tied to the objective circumstances of the worker’s movement in Iran.

The anti-IRI movement is therefore way more radical than any bourgeoisie opposition can handle it. Therefore, the abovementioned merges and splits within the 1% camp are happening in hopes to undermine the radical anti-IRI movement, the 99% camp.

In short, the battle in Iran IS about socialism vs capitalism.

February 21, 2012

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Related: 

Peace in Iran = The overthrow of the Islamic regime by revolution